Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -

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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dorian | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (20:10 UTC, 16 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].

90L Invest:

Sunday, May 19, 2019 15:46PM PDT - 2019 Season
An annual ritual, making my website ready for the new season... New names are posted above. The names repeat every six years, so this is the same list as 2013. Sometimes names of 'big ones' get retired. The only new name on this list is Imelda, which replaced Ingrid. Ingrid was retired becaue it created a lot of damage in Mexico, which with hurricane Manuel attacking from the Pacific side, struck Mexico within a 24 hour period. Manuel was retired as well.

This is my 24th year of doing this! I started in 1996, 2 years before Google started, and when 'blogging' was not even a word. Maybe for its 25th anniversary I will change the look of this website and give it more 'modern' feel :-). Making the website ready for a new year involves moving a lot of files around, updating some scripts that download/process images, advisories, and making sure that my special tools will keep working. Hopefully I didn't break anything :-). In any case, welcome again to a new season. Hope that it will be a boring one! Also, don't forget that in order for me to keep the website running I am dependent on donations from you... -Gert

Tuesday, May 14, 2019 18:23PM EDT - New Season

Good afternoon!

After a "winter" and a spring, the new 2019 hurricane season is at our doorstep officially in 18 days. This June 1, 2019. I hope everyone has at least thought of it's impending approach and also had those storm preparation plans somewhere in their thoughts as well.

Currently all is calm on the Eastern front with a few waves starting their migration off the coast of Africa but as is customary at this time of year, far south along the monsoon trough close to the inter tropical convergence zone. This, along with early season cool surface water temperatures aka SST's, wind shear and that always present Saharan Dust Layer aka SAL, usually mean none will develop or get close to developing this early. So far so good.

Here in the Virgin Islands, a drought has ensued. The island is dry, brown, getting bereft of foliage and brings back visions of everything stripped after a hurricane. Water trucks are running rampant, farmers are suffering immense troubles with crops and livestock, with no respite in short sight. Hopefully, in a few weeks, the drought should break but Âhopefully not all at once. A deluge will be harmful as well with flooding, runoff, and erosion.

Yes it's that time again. Preparation time, emergency kit time, evacuation if necessary planning time, check your generator time, hey you know the drill!

Plan for the worst. Hope for the best. We have been there done that Caribbean. Let's do it again!

Dave

Friday, May 3, 2019 13:55PM PDT - Cyclone Fani in India
Fani made landfall in India just below Category 5 strength. One hundred million people are apparently in its path and more than a million have been evacuated. Hopefully it won't be as bad as in 1999 when more than 10,000 people died. The path takes it also close to Bangladesh. A lot of people live in river delta areas which are just above sea level, so even a minor storm surge could give a lot of problems... Read more on Google News. -Gert

Friday, April 5, 2019 09:51AM PDT - Normal season ahead?
It is that time of the year again that Klotzbach et al., researchers at Colorado State issue their forecast of Atlantic Hurricane activity. They expect this season to be slightly below normal, with 13 named storms (12.1 is normal), 5 hurricanes (6.4 is normal) of which 2 become major (Category 3 or higher, 2.7 is normal). The probability for at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a large area) is 39% (42% is normal).

The big question mark is as usually if El Nino conditions occur this Summer, which suppresses hurricane formation and strengthening. Right now we are in an El Nino, and although models are all over the place, most predict that the El Nino will still be there later this year. Good for us! Also, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are a bit below normal, which is good as well.

They also issued an Excel spreadsheet with landfall probabilities for the Caribbean and Central America region. Below is the top 7 of the chance that at least one tropical storm (TS), hurricane (H) or major hurricane (MH) will track within 50 miles. I sorted the list by hurricane.

  Region               TS     H    MH
  Bahamas, The         68%   41%   22%
  Cuba                 66%   40%   20%
  Mexico               74%   40%   14%
  Dominican Republic   40%   24%    8%
  Haiti                35%   19%    9%
  Antigua and Barbuda  32%   19%    7%
  Cayman Islands       32%   19%    7%

As always, take these forecasts not too serious. They are not set in stone for sure, esp. the April forecast has modest skill. Nevertheless, it is nice to hear that it will probably be an about normal season, better than a forecast that predicts a highly active season. In any case, keep in mind that just one hurricane in your backyard will spoil your whole season! We still have to prepare as best as we can. A good time to start checking your hurricane shutters, possible flying/falling hazards around your house, emergency supplies, etc., is now. -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda are
showing signs of organization.  Although recent satellite wind data
suggest that the system currently lacks a well-defined center of
circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for the formation of a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone
later today or tonight.  Conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development by late Tuesday, and the
disturbance is expected to merge with a cold front on Wednesday.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route
to investigate the disturbance.  Interests in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.  The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Nevis [May 15 14:08]
- Trinidad & Tobago [May 9 5:43]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [May 3 18:46]
- Anguilla [May 3 18:03]
- Antigua [May 2 9:38]
- Dominican Republic [Apr 28 18:09]
- St.Thomas [Apr 16 14:47]
- Grenada [Apr 13 6:38]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Apr 3 9:00]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact [email protected].


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken ([email protected]).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to [email protected]. Gert
































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